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Six Guatemalans were arrested on suspicion of an immigrant truck accident. On December 9, local time, the United States and Guatemala jointly announced that six Guatemalans were arrested. They are suspected of human smuggling and involved in the accident that the vehicle carrying immigrants overturned in Mexico in 2021. The suspect will be charged with conspiracy, endangering life, causing serious personal injury and causing death. In 2021, a truck carrying more than 160 immigrants crashed into a bridge pillar of an overpass in Tustra Gutierrez, the capital of Chiapas in southern Mexico, killing more than 50 people.Guotai Junan: Airline naked fares will keep rising year-on-year, and the pressure on oil prices will continue to improve. Guotai Junan Research Report said that the recent trend of passenger flow and load factor conforms to the characteristics of off-season, and is better than the same period in 2023. The pressure on oil prices has improved significantly since the fourth quarter of 2024. In December, the ex-factory price of domestic jet fuel increased slightly by 3% from the previous month and decreased by 17% year-on-year, continuing the downward trend of the central government. Recently, domestic naked fares have kept rising year-on-year, and it is estimated that more than half of the fuel has been reduced, reflecting that the recovery of supply and demand is better than expected, and it is expected that the off-season will greatly reduce losses year-on-year. Considering that the recent decline in international oil prices will be transmitted to China with a delay of about two months, the oil price pressure will continue to improve in the first quarter of 2025. It is predicted that the concentration of passenger flow in Spring Festival travel rush in the first half of 2025 will contribute to the active revenue management of the airline company, and the peak season may show more than expected profit elasticity and catalyze optimistic expectations. Reaffirm the logic of super cycle and long period of aviation equipment. When supply and demand recover, considering the marketization of fares and the slowdown of fleet growth, the profit center can be expected to rise.In November, the annual rate of M2 money supply in Japan was 1.2%, and the previous value was 1.20%. M3 annual rate is 0.7%.

Sources: The current Secretary-General of OPEC, Ghais, will be re-elected. Four representatives of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that the organization will re-elect the current Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais for a three-year term at a virtual meeting on December 10th. A source said that the meeting will start at 18:30 Beijing time today and is expected to be short and only deal with administrative affairs.CITIC Securities: Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a window of policy improvement, and we can bargain and seize the opportunity of valuation repair. CITIC Securities recently reported that the situation in the light industry has been severe since 2024, but it still presents three bright spots: channel reconstruction of the personal care industry, internationalization of the tobacco industry and asset integration of the metal packaging industry. The above-mentioned opportunities for subdividing the track are expected to continue and be further strengthened in 2025. Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a policy improvement window, which can be laid out on dips, seize the opportunity of valuation repair, pay attention to industry demand and policy continuity, and attach importance to reasonable valuation intervals. In 2025, the papermaking and paper packaging industries will benefit from the recovery of consumption.The initial strength of inter-bank spot bonds was obvious. The yield of active bonds of 7-year and 10-year treasury bonds dropped by 3.5bp. The yield of active bonds of 7-year and 10-year treasury bonds fell by 3.5bp, the yield of 7-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 18" reported 1.725%, and the yield of 10-year "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 11" hit 1.87%, all hitting record lows. The yield of 30-year "24 Special Treasury Bond 06" dropped by 3.1bp to 2.079%, the lowest since the end of February 2005.

Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher, with the Nikkei 225 index rising 0.55% to 39,375.49 points. South Korea's KOSPI index rose 1% to 2,384.51 points.CICC interprets the meeting of the Politburo in December: the fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year. CICC issued a document saying that the tone of the Politburo in September will be continued, and this Politburo meeting will further inject confidence into the market, and there will be many new formulations in policy. From the perspective of policy objectives, the demand for growth is more clear, and the expression of "property market and stock market" is also very clear. From the policy direction, expanding domestic demand ranks first, and the tendency to boost consumption and improve people's livelihood is further highlighted. From the policy tone, monetary and fiscal policies are more active, and "extraordinary countercyclical adjustment" is put forward for the first time. In terms of specific policy prospects, we believe that the following aspects are worthy of attention: the intensity of fiscal policy next year is expected to be significantly higher than this year; The loose space of monetary policy may be opened through comprehensive policies, and the structural monetary policy may be significantly overweight; Expand domestic demand in an all-round way, and incremental measures may focus more on consumption; Further promote reform and opening up. Generally speaking, the policy mix is in line with what we judge as "tight credit, loose money and wide finance" in the second half of the financial cycle.Galaxy Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of pig breeding and broiler breeding. The Galaxy Securities Research Report pointed out that: 1. Pig breeding: the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding has expanded. Based on the function value of fertile sows and MSY framework, the operation judgment of pig price in 2024 was basically verified. With regard to the trend of pig price in 2025, the annual average price runs relatively smoothly, and the difference lies in the continuous optimization of the total cost of excellent pig enterprises, which brings more than expected breeding profits. In addition, the impact point of the pig price in 2025 lies in the impact of the current winter climate change on the epidemic situation, which needs to be continuously tracked. It is suggested to pay attention to pig enterprises with leading/continuous improvement in cost control industry, relatively healthy funds and reasonable valuation. 2. Broiler breeding: 1) Yellow feather chicken: Many factors, such as low production capacity, may push up the price of yellow chicken, and the cost advantage of the head enterprise will be superimposed on the price to improve, and the profit elasticity has an advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Lihua shares. 2) White feather chicken: In early December, avian influenza broke out in Oklahoma and New Zealand. New Zealand has announced that it will stop exporting poultry products; The introduction of Oklahoma, the only introduction state in the United States, is expected to be blocked. According to Boya Hexun, the domestic Anweijie poultry farm has received a notice of suspension of introduction; In other respects, the amount of seeds available in France and the reopening time of other States in the United States are still uncertain. If the production capacity of ancestral white chickens in China is reduced or the introduction is stopped due to the influence of overseas avian influenza, the industry boom cycle is expected to go up, and it is suggested to pay attention to the plate.